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Chris Meaney
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (+105) after it opened @ 38.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 7.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 69.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
