Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-101) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accumulate 16.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has garnered 74.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for many fewer yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards