Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-101) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accumulate 16.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has garnered 74.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for many fewer yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
