Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 246.5 (-114) after it opened @ 243.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Kirk Cousins has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 256.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.17 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.54 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards