Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Stefon Diggs has totaled a lot more receiving yards per game (107.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (176.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Cons
- The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
