Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Justin Jefferson has compiled significantly more receiving yards per game (104.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- Justin Jefferson has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (99.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards
83
Receiving Yards
