Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Eagles vs. Vikings
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-133) after it opened @ 48.5 (-119).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to notch 14.3 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (63.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.9% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Vikings are an enormous 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 33.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
