Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-120/-109).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-109) after it opened @ 19.5 (-109).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
Zach Ertz has totaled a colossal 57.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 41.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be much less involved in his team’s air attack this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.5% in games he has played).

Projection

THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards