Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-120) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- Greg Dulcich has run a route on 80.3% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Greg Dulcich to notch 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- Greg Dulcich has accrued a whopping 65.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.
- Greg Dulcich has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 39.0 yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 7.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
