Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deon JacksonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Deon Jackson’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to garner 11.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (38.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.6% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.48 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
