Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-134/+102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+102) after it opened @ 31.5 (-117).

Pros

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.83 seconds per snap.
Dalton Schultz has run a route on 79.5% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to accrue 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among TEs.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.9%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (75.9%).

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 55.9% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Dalton Schultz has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends, completing a mere 64.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards