Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
Terry McLaurin has run a route on 92.8% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Terry McLaurin has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 67.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Cons

The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards