NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/23)

Wednesday’s 11-game NBA DFS slate is absolutely crazy, and I’m sure a lot more is going to change throughout the day. Be sure to follow all of the news as it comes across.

Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 23 | NBA DFS First Look

New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -6.5, total: 226.5
Pace: NYK (29th), CHA (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Julius Randle sat out Tuesday’s game and will be questionable for Wednesday.

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons

ATL -5.5, total: 228
Pace: ATL (21st), DET (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• John Collins will remain sidelined for the Hawks.
• Hamidou Diallo remains without a timetable for return.

Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers

IND -6, total: 235.5
Pace: SAC (7th), IND (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Domantas Sabonis (knee) will be out for this game. Meanwhile, De’Aaron Fox (hand) is expected to remain out.
• Tyrese Haliburton and Chris Duarte are listed as questionable for Indiana.

Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics

BOS -5, total: 217.5
Pace: UTA (18th), BOS (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are both listed as probable for Boston.
• The Jazz will remain without Bojan Bogdanovic.

Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies

BKN -2, total: 239
Pace: BKN (9th), MEM (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant has been ruled out for the Grizzlies. 
• For Brooklyn, Goran Dragic is listed as doubtful, while Seth Curry is questionable.

Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat

MIA -6.5, total: 211.5
Pace: GSW (16th), MIA (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are listed as questionable for Miami.

Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

PHX -1.5, total: 236.5
Pace: PHX (8th), MIN (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Karl-Anthony Towns (forearm) is listed as questionable Minnesota.
• Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson remain out for Phoenix.

Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder

ORL -2, total: 219.5
Pace: ORL (11th), OKC (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Thunder. Meanwhile, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey, Kenrich Williams and Ty Jerome remain out.
• For Orlando, Wendell Carter is listed as questionable with wrist and ankle sprains. Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz have both also been ruled out.

Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -9.5, total: 223.5
Pace: HOU (2nd), DAL (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic has been ruled out with an ankle injury. 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers

PHI -7.5, total: 230.5
Pace: PHI (28th), LAL (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James is once again listed as questionable but likely plays.

San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers

SAS -9.5, total: 231
Pace: SAS (5th), POR (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Essentially the entire Portland roster remains out.
• Lonnie Walker has been ruled out for San Antonio.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Spencer Dinwiddie vs. Houston Rockets

Dinwiddie has been playing fantastic for Dallas as of late, averaging 18 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 34.7 fantasy points per game over his last four outings. Now he will step into a starting role with Luka Doncic ruled out for the Mavericks. Since joining this team, Dinwiddie is sporting a massive 33.9% usage rate with Doncic off the floor, while posting an 18% assist rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute in the split. That usage bump is nearly 11% with Doncic off the floor, by the way. He’ll handle the ball a lot more with Doncic and his 91.7 touches per game out of the lineup (second most in basketball), while the matchup is outstanding. The Rockets are coughing up the sixth-most points per game to opposing point guards (23.97), as well as the sixth-most assists per game to the position (9.03). Houston is also allowing the third-worst field goal percentage off short mid-range shots (45%), which bodes well for Dinwiddie.

Tyus Jones vs. Brooklyn Nets

Essentially anytime Ja Morant is ruled out for Memphis, Jones becomes an elite fantasy option and a risky fade. We saw him start two of the last three games for the Grizzlies, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in both contests. He’s now started 16 games this season, averaging 11.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Meanwhile, Jones is sporting a 21% assist rate with Morant off the floor this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split. Jones also averages nearly nine more fantasy points per game with Morant out of the lineup this season.

Mitchell Robinson vs. Charlotte Hornets

Robinson finds himself in a tremendous spot Wednesday, facing a Charlotte team that has struggled to slow down opposing centers for years now. The Hornets are coughing up the second-most points (25.6) and second-most rebounds per game (17.54) to opposing centers on the season. They are also surrendering a league-leading 7.7 points per game off putbacks, which bodes extremely well for Robinson, who is averaging the most putback points per game in all of basketball (3.8). We’ll see if Julius Randle or Nerlens Noel play but even if they do return to the lineup, Robinson remains a very strong mid-range center. But with both players off the floor this season, Robinson is sporting a 36% rebounding rate, while his usage rate does climb by a tiny bit. 

Trae Young vs. Detroit Pistons

Young is coming off a magical performance in The Garden, and with John Collins still sidelined for the Hawks, we should continue to see massive usage from the All-Star point guard. With Collins off the floor this season, Young is sporting an impressive 35.8% usage rate, while averaging 1.46 fantasy points per minute in the split. And while the advanced DVP shows this as a middling matchup for Young, I actually love it. The Pistons are coughing up the most points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll (0.97), as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (46%). Young, meanwhile, is averaging the most points per game as the primary ball handler out of the pick-and-roll this season (13.5). 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Damian Jones vs. IND — The Kings will be without both Domantas Sabonis and Richaun Holmes, which should lead to a start at center for Jones. He has started six games this season, averaging a respectable 10.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game in 24 minutes of action.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Alec Burks (35.25)
Bogdan Bogdanovic (49.0)
Otto Porter (37.75)
Aaron Gordon (36.25)
Isaiah Hartenstein (31.5)
RJ Barrett (54.25)
Terance Mann (42.0)
Trae Young (61.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Alec Burks (36.2)
Trae Young (57.2)
RJ Barrett (51.1)
Kevin Huerter (33.6)
Otto Porter (34.5)
Bogdan Bogdanovic (49.3)
Aaron Gordon (36.4)
Isaiah Hartenstein (34.9)
Nikola Jokic (69.8)