Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With the preseason comes overreaction, naturally, but just because some people overreact does not mean there shouldn’t be any reaction at all to new information and news.
Tuesday, I updated my rankings for FTN Fantasy, and there was some major movement. While Calvin Ridley passed DeAndre Hopkins as my WR4 in 0.5 PPR formats, that was nowhere closer to the biggest riser. Here are three players who shot up my rankings and three who fell like a brick.
Fantasy football rankings – Risers and fallers
Here is a look at some players I have moved up and down my rankings on FTNFantasy recently.
James Robinson is rising up draft boards
0.5 PPR ranking: RB19
I, along with the rest of the industry, moved James Robinson up boards after it was announced that Travis Etienne was out for the year with a Lisfranc injury. Last year, Robinson finished as RB8 in points per game at the position, rushing for 1,070 yards and 7 touchdowns while adding 39 receptions for 344 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Despite playing on the Jaguars who finished with the worst record in the league on an offense that scored just 19.1 points per game, the third fewest in football, Robinson managed to have seven top-10 scoring weeks.
Averaging over three yards per carry after contact, Robinson showed great contact balance and strength as a runner, making the NFL look foolish for letting him go undrafted. While Robinson had a fantastic rookie year, it is important not to overreact to the Etienne news by overdrafting Robinson. While he finished as a top-10 running back last season, it will be difficult to duplicate that this season on a bottom-of-the-barrel offense and with Carlos Hyde likely to steal some of his workload. Robinson finished top seven in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunity share last season, and he will struggle to replicate his 2020 output without that volume — but he can still produce as a consistent fantasy RB2.
Marquez Callaway could be the Saints WR1 — for now
0.5 PPR ranking: WR60
The former undrafted receiver out of the University of Tennessee has put on a show so far this preseason and may be fantasy’s biggest riser of the entire offseason. Coming off a 5-catch, 104-yard, 2- touchdown performance on national TV, Marquez Callaway has put himself in the WR4 conversation in fantasy football. Once on my list of last-round fliers for this season, Callaway is looking like the Saints’ top receiving option with the absence of Michael Thomas.
Many will point to Drew Brees retiring and the Saints QB uncertainties, but Taysom Hill showed more arm strength than Brees did last season, completing 17% more of his deep passes, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and attempting deep balls at a 7.4% higher clip. If Jameis Winston is the quarterback this season for the Saints that could be even better for Callaway. Winston produced top-10 WRs in back-to-back seasons with the Buccaneers, including Chris Godwin in 2019 finishing as WR2 overall.
While Callaway has looked spectacular this preseason and is not fighting anyone talented for market share, it is important to remember we don’t want to overdraft average athletes with no draft capital — especially when stud receiver Thomas will be coming back and eating to that ceiling before you know it. I am moving Callaway up boards but being sure not to overdraft him.
Jakobi Meyers is a fantasy football steal
0.5 PPR rank: WR52
It’s not just his spectacular preseason performance that has me high on Jakobi Meyers. When you look closer at last season you see a blossoming star. Using FTN’s air yards tool, Meyers finished with a weighted opportunity score of 71.84%, third highest in the league, ahead of Stefon Diggs. He dominated the Patriots’ targets (28.67%) and saw 41% of the team’s air yards. The issue for the Patriots was the passing volume and lack of touchdowns, with Cam Newton throwing one or zero in all but one game. So far this preseason, Newton has looked better, and the Patriots drafted Mac Jones, who should play before long if Newton struggles like last season. With improved quarterback play and showing early signs of building off last year’s impressive metrics, Meyers is a steal in drafts.
Michael Carter will require patience
0.5 PPR rank: RB32
Michael Carter is someone I am very high on and think will work out this season in fantasy, but it will require patience. Against the Packers he looked great, rushing 10 times for 52 yards, but he played behind both Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. He is dropping from an eighth-round pick to a 10th-rounder as concerns for his workload increase.
Carter is a dynamic pass catcher who was a big play back in college, averaging over 8 yards per carry. While he wasn’t drafted until the fourth round, the Jets have more capital invested in Carter than any other back on the roster, and he offers far and away the most upside in the passing game. You will have to be patient, but I would buy the dip on Carter and take the multiple-round discount.
Latavius Murray losing the RB2 job?
0.5 PPR rank: RB45
As Derek Brown wrote in his five players you didn’t know you needed to draft, Tony Jones is moving up draft boards as he moves up the Saints depth chart. Jeff Duncan is reporting that Jones has a real chance to be the RB2 in New Orleans this season, which would destroy Latavius Murray’s stock. Murray has been extremely efficient with Alvin Kamara on the sidelines in his Saints career. Using the FTN Splits tool, Murray has averaged 110.5 rushing yards, 43 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns per game in games without Kamara. That kind of upside with an injury and goal-line work made him an attractive late-round running back. While he looked great last season, reports from camp indicate he may have lost a step, and when a running back falls off, they fall off hard. Be cautious when thinking about drafting Murray right now.
The Rams trade for Sony Michel
Darrell Henderson, Xavier Jones, Jake Funk stock down
Shout out to the Rams and Patriots for making this trade while I was writing the article. The Rams have had issues with depth at running back after Cam Akers tore his Achilles earlier this preseason, causing Darrell Henderson to shoot up draft boards and Xavier Jones and Jake Funk to be late-round fliers. With the addition of Sony Michel, Funk and Jones can now be safely ignored in all but extremely deep leagues, while the talent infusion at the position drops Henderson from an RB2 to a flex, and he should fall multiple rounds in drafts.
