NBA DFS Preview - First Look (1/26)

Wednesday presents a loaded 10-game NBA DFS slate that features a handful of very strong star players, including James Harden, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. As always, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer throughout the afternoon.

Let’s take an early look at the slate.

NBA Vegas Data for January 26 | NBA DFS First Look

Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

MIL -4.5, total: 217.5
Pace: MIL (4th), CLE (21st)

Situations to monitor:

Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Grayson Allen is suspended for this game.
For Cleveland, Lauri Markkanen is once again out with an ankle injury, while Jarrett Allen is questionable with an illness.

Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers

CHA -1.5, total: 225.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), IND (19th)

Situations to monitor:

Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner are out but Domantas Sabonis could possibly return for this game.
Gordon Hayward is questionable with a foot injury. Jalen McDaniels has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic

LAC -1, total: 210.5
Pace: LAC (18th), ORL (10th)

Situations to monitor:

Marcus Morris didn’t play Tuesday due to personal reasons.
For Orlando, Mo Bamba is listed as questionable with an ankle sprain.

Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -8, total: 234.5
Pace: SAC (8th), ATL (17th)

Situations to monitor:

De’Aaron Fox has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and will be questionable again Wednesday. Terence Davis suffered a wrist injury Tuesday and did not return.
De’Andre Hunter (back) is listed as questionable for the Hawks.

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

MIA -6, total: 203.5
Pace: NYK (28th), MIA (24th)

Situations to monitor:

Kyle Lowry will remain out for the Heat.
Both Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel are questionable for New York.

Denver Nuggets @ Brooklyn Nets

DEN -1.5, total: 225
Pace: DEN (26th), BKN (11th)

Situations to monitor:

With the Nets at home again, Kyrie Irving will once again sit out.
Will Barton (hamstring) was downgraded to out Tuesday, putting his status in question for Wednesday’s contest.

Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -4.5, total: 218
Pace: TOR (27th), CHI (11th)

Situations to monitor:

Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso will remain out for the Bulls, while Nikola Vucevic is listed as probable.
Fred VanVleet missed Tuesday’s game with an injury and will be listed as questionable for Wednesday. Scottie Barnes also sat out with a wrist injury.

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs

MEM -4, total: 228.5
Pace: MEM (2nd), SAS (8th)

Situations to monitor:

Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones remain out for Memphis, but Desmond Bane and Brandon Clarke are listed as questionable.
Keita Bates-Diop has entered the health and safety protocols for San Antonio.

Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz

PHX -3.5, total: 221.5
Pace: PHX (5th), UTA (13th)

Situations to monitor:

Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will both remain sidelined for Utah.
For Phoenix, both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee have been ruled out, which means most of the center minutes will belong to Bismack Biyombo. Jae Crowder has also been ruled out again.

Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trail Blazers

DAL -4, total: 216
Pace: DAL (30th), POR (20th)

Situations to monitor:

Tim Hardaway (foot) will be out for Dallas.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Bismack Biyombo is averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute over the last week

Biyombo has been fantastic for the Suns, and although JaVale McGee has been starting in the absence of Deandre Ayton, Biyombo has been far more productive. He has double-digit rebounds in three of his last four games and over his last five games, Biyombo is averaging 14 points, 9.6 rebounds and 32 fantasy points per game. And over the last week of play, the veteran center is averaging nearly 1.20 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a healthy 34% rebounding rate. With both Ayton and McGee out for this game, Biyombo should handle most of the center minutes and faces a Utah team that is missing Rudy Gobert. He also just went for 16 points and 13 rebounds against this same team.

Trae Young is averaging 14.0 points per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler this season

No player in basketball is averaging more points per game off the play type on the year. Young is in a tremendous spot Wednesday, facing a fast-paced Sacramento team that struggles to defend. They are surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll (19.3), as well as the sixth-most points per possession (0.90) and third-worst field goal percentage (44.6%) off the play type. Sacramento is also coughing up a healthy 66% field goal percentage at the rim this season, the seventh-worst mark in the league, which bodes well for Young, who obviously can get hot from beyond the arc but also ranks fourth among all players in basketball in drives per game (18.4).

James Harden averaged 7.53 seconds per touch during Tuesday’s game

With both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant unavailable for Brooklyn Tuesday, Harden obviously dominated the usage. Against the Lakers, Harden recorded a healthy 100 touches, but what is more impressive was the fact that he averaged an insane 7.53 seconds per touch, while possessing the ball for a total of 12.6 minutes. For reference, the league leaders for both of those numbers are Harden at 9.4 minutes of possession per game and Trae Young at 6.15 average seconds per touch. Because Brooklyn is at home again Wednesday, Irving will remain out, which makes Harden the top high-end player on the slate, at least for me.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Richaun Holmes vs. ATL — Holmes hasn’t played massive minutes in a while, but he did play 24 minutes last game, despite not seeing the floor for the final 16 minutes in a blowout. If that game stays close, there is a chance Holmes flirts with 30 minutes and at just $4,500 on DraftKings, that is very intriguing, especially if De’Aaron Fox and Terence Davis are out for Sacramento. And against a huge Atlanta frontcourt, the Kings might need to rely on Holmes for more minutes here.

Cameron Johnson vs. UTA — Jae Crowder has once again been ruled out for the Suns, which should lead to another start for Johnson. And with both Crowder and Deandre Ayton off the floor this season, Johnson is sporting a respectable 0.91 fantasy points per minute to go along with a solid 17% rebounding rate. He played 38 minutes last game, scoring 35 fantasy points.