NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/10)

We start the week off with a very strong seven-game slate around the NBA on Monday. Per usual, there is so much to go over and so much that is likely to change, so be sure to keep tabs on the news throughout the day and check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets

MIL -2, total: 235
Pace: MIL (10th), CHA (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Jrue Holiday, George Hill and Grayson Allen remain in the health and safety protocols for Milwaukee.

Utah Jazz @ Detroit Pistons

UTA -12, total: 223.5
Pace: UTA (12th), DET (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert are in the health and safety protocols for the Jazz.
• Jerami Grant remains sidelined for the Pistons.

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics

BOS -7, total: 215.5
Pace: IND (23rd), BOS (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert are listed as questionable for Indiana.

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

NYK -6.5, total: 213
Pace: SAS (4th), NYK (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick White, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are in the health and safety protocols, while Doug McDermott is questionable to play.
• Kemba Walker has missed the last five games with a knee injury and is questionable for Monday, while Evan Fournier (thigh) and Nerlens Noel (conditioning) are also questionable.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets

PHI -10.5, total: 226.5
Pace: PHI (27th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Tyrese Maxey will not be available for this game, while Shake Milton (back) has also been ruled out.
• Armoni Brooks is back in the health and safety protocols for Houston, while Alperen Sengun is out (ankle) remains out.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings

CLE -5, total: 221
Pace: CLE (21st), SAC (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Richaun Holmes is listed as questionable, while Damian Jones has entered the health and safety protocols for Sacramento.
• Isaac Okoro will remain sidelined for the Cavaliers.

Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers

BKN -10.5, total: 229
Pace: BKN (6th), POR (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Larry Nance remain out for Portland, while Norman Powell has recently entered the health and safety protocols.
• Kyrie Irving is eligible to play for Brooklyn.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Dejounte Murray is averaging 9.0 minutes of possession per game over his last three contests.

Murray has been fantastic all year long, but with San Antonio missing Derrick White, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell as of late, the all-star guard has been asked to do even more. He’s scored at least 53 fantasy points in each of his last three games, and during that span, Murray is averaging 9.0 minutes of possession per game, second in the NBA behind only James Harden. Murray is also averaging a healthy 6.3 seconds per touch during that stretch, which would easily lead the league over the course of the season. We’ve seen huge assist totals for Murray lately, as he’s averaging 18 potential assists and 26.7 points created off assists per game over his last three contests. Both are numbers that rank top-five in all of basketball. 

Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging 5.9 spot-up points per game this season.

That is good for the sixth-most in the NBA, as Bogdanovic continues to operate as a very viable scorer for the Jazz. He might be asked to do a little more than usual with Utah missing Rudy Gobert, Rudy Gay and Joe Ingles, which should also solidify his minutes. His usage rate with all three players off the floor this season is just over 21%, and this is a very favorable matchup for Bogdanovic. The Pistons are coughing up the third-most points per possession to spot-up shooters this season (1.06), as well as the sixth-highest field-goal percentage off that play type (40.3%). 

Jarrett Allen is averaging 2.6 putback points per game on the year.

The Cavaliers are coming off the front end of a back-to-back, but I still really like both Allen and Evan Mobley in this spot. Sacramento plays at a top-tier pace and struggles to defend the interior, as no team in basketball is coughing up more points per game in the paint than the Kings (53.0). Allen, meanwhile, leads the NBA in paint touches this season (12.5), while his 5.6 points per game off cuts also leads the league. The Kings are also allowing 7.2 putback points per game, tied for the fifth-most in basketball. This all sets up really, really nicely for Allen. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Josh Primo/Lonnie Walker vs NYK- The Spurs are short-handed, as Derrick White, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson remain out, while Doug McDermott is questionable. Primo logged 39 minutes last game, while Walker entered the starting lineup and played 33 minutes, flirting with 40 fantasy points.

Alex Len vs CLE- If Richaun Holmes is out again, Len becomes an ideal value option at center. Damian Jones is in the health and safety protocols, and against a Cavaliers team that plays with a ton of size, the Kings would need Len to play plenty of minutes. And with Holmes off the floor this season, Len is sporting a solid 27 percent rebounding rate, while averaging 0.94 fantasy points per minute. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

D’Angelo Russell (48.75)
Austin Rivers (37.75)
Kyle Kuzma (59.5)
Jaren Jackson (52.5)
Karl-Anthony Towns (64.75)
Terrence Ross (41.25)
Jarred Vanderbilt (59.25)
Kevon Looney (41.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Austin Rivers (36.5)
Luka Doncic (55.8)
Josh Christopher (31.6)
D’Angelo Russell (45)
Kyle Anderson (45.4)
Kyle Kuzma (54.9)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (55.9)
Jarred Vanderbilt (59.8)
Karl-Anthony Towns (62.3)

Minnesota scored 141 points against the Rockets on Sunday, which led to three members of this team landing in the optimal lineups. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic returned to the Dallas lineup and posted his third triple-double of the season.