Week 2 fantasy flames: Fournette to fire up vs. Carolina

Each week, the Noise highlights under-started names he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 points, WR: 11 points, TE: 10 points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 2 Flames in the comments section below.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

(11% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $5,900)
Matchup: at CLV
Vegas line/Total: CLV -6, 44

Cucumber cool, debonair in demeanor and enormously talented — Burrow is a franchise cornerstone with the vintage aura of Montana or Marino. Essentially Cam Newton with more accuracy, he’s also a phenomenal, deceptive runner. On a designed scamper that went for a TD against the Chargers, he followed his block and shuttled into the end zone. He was rocky at times (23-36 for 193 yards, INT, 5.4 YPA) and a kicker calf failure ruined an opportunity for a debut victory, but of paramount importance for the greenhorn, A.J. Green’s foot didn’t randomly disintegrate. Overall, the veteran wideout showed throwback form catching five passes (on 9 targets) for 51 yards versus stingy L.A.

The Browns, in classic fashion, were tossed around like ragdolls last week in Baltimore. Hey, maybe they’re tanking for the top extraterrestrial in the 2021 NFL Draft. Down DBs Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams, they were no match for Lamar Jackson and his electric tools, in total yielding 284 pass yards, three touchdowns and a 10.9 YPA. It’s possible Denzel Ward will receive reinforcements in Cleveland’s defensive backfield, but given the short week there are few, if any, guarantees. With jitters now cast aside, Burrow shines in the first of many primetime contests.

Fearless forecast: 236 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 29 rushing yards, 20.3 fantasy points

Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Bills

(22%; $4,800)
Matchup: at MIA
Vegas line/Total: BUF -5.5, 42

Similar to the slow build in Phil Collins’ “In the Air Tonight,” Moss’ ADP gradually rose throughout August, reaching a Round 8 crescendo earlier this month. Throughout training camp, he bulldozed through contact, a hallmark he displayed during his storied career for the Utah Utes. Remember, last year he established the pace in YAC per attempt at the FBS level with a 4.1 mark. Although his final Week 1 line didn’t trigger salivary glands (9-11-0-3-16-1), the rookie’s near-50% opportunity share and noteworthy red-zone edge (88.9 RZ% WK1) project useful fantasy performances to come.

This week under the South Florida sun, Moss could sizzle. Against another dual-threat QB, Cam Newton, Miami struggled with gap assignments. Per usual, Sony Michel resembled a belly-dragging beagle plodding his way to 37 yards and a TD on 10 carries. However, Newton, Rex Burkhead, James White and J.J. Taylor picked up the slack. As a team, the Pats chugged their way to 217 rushing yards. Given Josh Allen’s multidimensionality, he should keep Miami’s front guessing. On another 12-14 touches, bank on Moss logging a second-straight notable effort.

Fearless forecast: 10 carries, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 12.8 fantasy points

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(16%; $4,800)
Matchup: vs. CAR
Vegas line/Total: TB -8, 49

Bruce Arians is a trickster. On the Swindler Scale of Fantasy Deception, he’s officially elevated to level orange, one step below full Belichick. The “solid role” in New Orleans for the newly acquired running back Arians noted earlier in the week consisted of nine snaps and a colossal six touches. Fournette didn’t make the most of his limited work, averaging an embarrassing 1.0 yards per carry, but outside an impressive 21-yard scamper, bulk-worker Ronald Jones didn’t light the world on fire (17-66-0, 3-2-16-0). It’s impossible to know what Arians is thinking, but it seems unlikely a 1,600-total-yard producer from a season ago continues to only make cameos.

With his feet officially wet in Tampa, expect Fournette’s workload to slowly build. Acquirable for a six-pack of Simpler Times and a can of Beer Nuts, the rusher won’t be dirt cheap for much longer. His matchup versus Carolina is a golden opportunity to seize more of the opportunity share. Declawed in Week 1 by Josh Jacobs and the Raiders, the Panthers represented the fluff balls we all anticipated. In total, Vegas racked 133 rushing yards and three ground scores. Assuming a positive script, Fournette has excellent odds of registering 10-12 touches, which, given the meek opponent, is enough volume to bear statistical fruits.

Fearless forecast: 12 carries, 56 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.2 fantasy points

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens

(58%; $6,200)
Matchup: at HOU
Vegas line/Total: BAL -6.5, 52.5

In this week’s edition of “Something doesn’t match up,” Brown, despite having massive ownership numbers across DFS GPPs, only had a 47.5 receiving yards line at DraftKings Sportsbook. That, my friends, is your classic definition of “value.” Not undermining those who unearthed such a remarkable disparity, the speedster delivered on all fronts. Against a battered Browns secondary down a pair of DBs, he routinely torched them totaling an 18.8-yard average depth of target (46.3% of Baltimore’s total air yards), five receptions and 101 yards. For the bulked-up receiver, it was the first of potentially several sensational contributions.

Houston’s forgiving secondary was as advertised in the opener against KC. Granted, Patrick Mahomes would probably make the 2000 Ravens look mortal, but the Texans’ top coverman, Bradley Roby, allowed a 129.2 passer rating, TD included, to his assignment. Likely one of the worst back-end units in professional football, more gifting efforts are on the horizon. Against another bazooka-armed passer, Roby and Co. are sure to be burned. Brown’s torrid speed and separation skills present a gross mismatch downfield. Another 100-yard tally is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.7 fantasy points

Steven Sims Jr., WR, Washington Football Team

(1%; $4,700)
Matchup: at ARZ
Vegas line/Total: ARZ -6.5, 46

Largely undrafted in fantasy leagues despite some bold fanalyst claims he possessed breakout potential, Sims strung together a respectable opening-week line. In a shocking double-digit dismissal of Philadelphia, the slippery wideout grabbed three passes for 50 yards on three targets. The clear-cut No. 2 WR option for Dwayne Haskins, he’s sure to benefit occasionally from favorable coverage with defensive coordinators keying on vibrant star Terry McLaurin. Whether lining up in the slot or outside, he’ll churn out WR3 totals in various instances. Week 2 against Arizona presents one such opportunity.

Arizona, similar to Washington, pulled off one of the bigger stunners of Week 1 as it waltzed into smoky San Francisco and disposed of the popular preseason NFC champion pick. Against a ragtag Niners receiving corps, Byron Murphy and Dre Kirkpatrick, splitting slot coverage duties, surrendered a combined 2.08 yards per snap. Sims, who lined up in the slot 76.5% of the time Week 1, should bask in the limelight, provided Haskins exhibits competency. Conservative against Philadelphia, he registered a meager 5.7 yards per attempt and ranked dead last among starters in adjusted completion percentage. Still, in a potential high-volume contest, he’s a cheap option who could pop.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.0 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts

(7%; $4,500)
Matchup: vs. MIN
Vegas line/Total: IND -3, 47.5

Campbell pairs beautifully with a side of pate and wonderful brimming glass of chardonnay. Parris, against a Minnesota secondary with severe vulnerabilities in underneath coverage, is worth touring for those ballers on a budget. Minnesota, repeatedly gashed by Aaron Rodgers last week, may boast an unrelenting front, but its backside is quite flammable. The future HOFer rained down fire on Holton Hill and Co., lighting them up for 364 yards and four touchdowns. It’s one game, but also surrendering 8.3 pass yards per attempt and the sixth-highest average air yards intended (9.6), questions remain whether this is the new standard.

The sophomore receiver performed admirably in the opener at Jacksonville. On a team-high 61 snaps played, he lured nine targets, catching six passes for 71 yards. He also accounted for 36.7% of Indy’s total air yards. Hyped by head coach Frank Reich as a slot option whose multidimensional skill set meshes beautifully in the coach’s well-architected system. Expected to draw Mike Hughes in primary coverage (158.3 passer RTG, 2.25 yds/snap allowed WK1), he’s a flexy sexy option worth entertaining.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 67 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.2 fantasy points

Bonus flames (Under 60% started)

RB: Benny Snell, PIT (Line: PIT -6.5, DK: $4,800) — A season ago, Snell ran with the burst of an elderly stegosaurus trapped in a tarpit. He posted a laudable 3.18 yards after contact per attempt, but his RB46 finish in yards created per touch upheld the belief he was largely an ordinary north-south plodder. However, breaking up with Little Debbie during the offseason, a trimmer, faster Snell filled in brilliantly when James Conner exited before halftime Monday with an ankle injury. On 19 carries, he whammed and slammed his way to 113 yards. His resulting 2.89 yards gained after contact and four total missed tackles stirred the blood. Working behind a still robust offensive line down Zach Banner and facing a Denver D reeling from multiple injuries, he’s a RB2 lock in 12-team leagues assuming Conner sits. (FF: 20-83-1-1-6-0, 15.4 fantasy points)

RB: David Montgomery, CHI (Line: CHI -5.5, DK: $5,600) — Here are themes from Week 1 that are already preserved in amber: 1) Mitchell Trubisky consistent comical misfires, mental mistakes and sporadic teasing “WHO THE HELL IS THIS GUY?” throws (See the dime drop to Anthony Miller late in Detroit last week), 2) Steady chunk gains yielded by Chicago’s secondary, 3) Matt Nagy’s insistence on running Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson. For this Monty zealot, the final point is the most painful. After logging limited practice time earlier in the week, the sophomore rusher performed better than expected netting 3.54 yards after contact per attempt. He gripped the pigskin just 14 times, but insiders believe he’ll total 17-plus touches most weeks. This week against the Giants, look for his workload, and subsequently his numbers, to increase. New York gave up 4.8 yards per carry to Steelers RBs in Week 1. (FF: 17-67-1-2-11-0, 14.8 fantasy points)

WR: Scotty Miller, TB (Line: TB -8, DK: $4,100) — Christened by Tom Brady last week and showered with praise postgame by the passer despite a critical dropped pass, Miller is in line to contribute steadily over the foreseeable future. Mike Evans (hammy) gutted out 65 snaps in New Orleans but clearly appeared limited. With defenses focused on Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard, it could be the plucky jackrabbit who draws TB12’s eyes. This week matched against a Carolina secondary skewered by another speedster, Henry Ruggs, before a knee injury forced an early exit, Miller is a viable WR3 contender in deeper formats. Likely to draw Troy Pride in primary coverage (158.3 passer RTG, 3.66 yds/snap allowed WK1), he could easily compile multiple chunk gains. (FF: 4-58-1, 13.8 fantasy points)

WR: CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Line: DAL -5.5, DK: $4,700) — When tight end Blake Jarwin crumpled to the ground with a non-contact injury, it, despite the horrificness of the setback, immediately lifting Lamb into the WR3 class. Digging in his cleats at various spots across the line of scrimmage against the Rams, Lamb impressed in his debut, topping all rookie wideouts with five catches and 59 yards on six targets. His 5.7 YAC per reception, a skill he was known for at Oklahoma, tucked inside the top-25 among all Week 1 WRs and TEs. Clashing this week with an Atlanta secondary peppered by Russell Wilson last Sunday, he’s a very enticing start in any sized league. His primary matchup, slot CB Darqueze Denard, surrendered a 95.8 passer rating and 1.58 yards per snap versus the Seahawks. (FF: 6-66-1, 15.6 fantasy points)

TE: Dan Arnold, ARZ (Line: ARZ -6.5, DK: $3,300) — DeAndre Hopkins thumped a forearm to the skull of San Francisco defenders last week, but lost in the Cardinals upending of their division rival Arnold played 45 snaps, 32 as a receiver. He didn’t erupt in the box score, catching his two targets for 21 yards, but his deployment offers upside when the matchup warrants. Week 2 is one such opportunity. Washington, doughier than your obese uncle in coverage across the middle, was pummeled by Philly’s dynamic duo of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz, coughing up 11 receptions for 119 yards and two TDs. Arnold, at a towering 6-foot-5, has a decent chance of spiking for six. (FF: 3-38-1, 11.3 fantasy points)