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Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

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Mac Jones

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 9

Patriots vs. Commanders

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-114).

Pros

  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
  • Mac Jones’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 68.6%.
  • Opposing teams have passed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (268.0 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.
  • This year, the porous Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 8.76 yards.
Cons

  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The Patriots O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection
THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards

Previous Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight Next Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kenneth Walker III from EV Insight