Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to total 4.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Mike Gesicki’s possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.4%.
- The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (64.0) to tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (60.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
- Mike Gesicki has notched far fewer air yards this season (36.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
