Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cardinals are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- The projections expect Marquise Brown to notch 8.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Marquise Brown has posted significantly more air yards this year (117.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
Cons
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.7% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Marquise Brown’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 62.8% to 54.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
