Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 284.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 284.5 (-133) after it opened @ 277.5 (-117).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is expected by our trusted projection set to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.2.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- This year, the anemic Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a whopping 314.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a a noteable diminishment in his throwing talent over last season’s 325.0 mark.
- Patrick Mahomes’s throwing effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 7.21 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
283
Passing Yards
283
Passing Yards
