Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- This game’s spread suggests a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- This week, Zach Ertz is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.5 targets.
- Zach Ertz has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.0% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (67.0) to tight ends this year.
Cons
- The projections expect the Cardinals offensive approach to skew 5.5% more towards the ground game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (55.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
- Zach Ertz’s 30.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a a noteable drop-off in his receiving skills over last year’s 41.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
