Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. 49ers
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average).
- The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
- Amari Cooper has been among the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 61.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
Cons
- At the present time, the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (58.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.
- The predictive model expects the Browns to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs this year, allowing 7.10 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
- The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.98 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
