Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Dolphins vs. Giants
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-139/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (+108) after it opened @ 21.5 (-118).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.
- Durham Smythe’s 72.6% Route Participation% this year conveys a a meaningful improvement in his passing offense workload over last year’s 27.1% rate.
- After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has shown good development this year, currently pacing 22.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).
- With a terrific 80.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (77th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe places among the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a heavy 13-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
- This year, the strong New York Giants defense has conceded a meager 61.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
