Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-110) after it opened @ 248.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
- In this week’s contest, Trevor Lawrence is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.2.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the league (just 187.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.38 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Buffalo’s unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards
235
Passing Yards
