Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Raiders vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-113) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Najee Harris has grinded out 57.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (82nd percentile).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.87 yards-per-carry.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles project as the 4th-worst DT corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Najee Harris’s rushing efficiency (3.76 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (11th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
