Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 18.4 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has averaged 89.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (99th percentile).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.96 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.6 plays per game.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
