Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Chargers
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to notch 8.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson’s talent in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 4.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 rate last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.4%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (60.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
