Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 99.5 (-117) after it opened @ 101.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Justin Jefferson has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 109.0 yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 135.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
118
Receiving Yards
118
Receiving Yards
