Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Patriots vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 216.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 67.3 plays per game.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.78 yards-per-target while ranking in the 85th percentile.
- The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 117.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 27.8 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 198.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
188
Passing Yards
188
Passing Yards
