Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Titans
Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-148/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (+112) after it opened @ 227.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the most yards in football (281.0 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has shown poor efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.35 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Deshaun Watson’s passing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 61.8% to 57.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
204
Passing Yards
204
Passing Yards
