Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 12.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has been given 52.3% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Raheem Mostert has picked up 53.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (76th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.8% run rate.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The New England Patriots defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.15 yards-per-carry.
- The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
