Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
- The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (57.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.8% to 50.9%.
- Logan Thomas has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 20th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 8th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
