Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to accrue 19.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Tyler Allgeier has picked up 61.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (84th percentile).
Cons
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
