Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.4% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 62.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- Michael Pittman has put up quite a few less air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
