NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 200.5 (-110).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The predictive model expects the Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 70.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The projections expect Taylor Heinicke to throw 36.0 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- The Falcons O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.8% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Taylor Heinicke has thrown for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (154.0) this year than he did last year (202.0).
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 63.0% to 51.0%.
- Taylor Heinicke’s 5.66 adjusted yards-per-target this season indicates a material regression in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 7.0% rate.
- This year, the stout Saints defense has surrendered a mere 209.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards
212
Passing Yards
