Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Pickens from EV Insight

George PickensReceiving Yards

Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (+105) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in football.
The model projects George Pickens to accrue 6.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After accruing 78.0 air yards per game last season, George Pickens has posted big gains this season, now averaging 89.0 per game.
George Pickens’s 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 44.8.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
George Pickens comes in as one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards