NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
George PickensReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (+105) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in football.
- The model projects George Pickens to accrue 6.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- After accruing 78.0 air yards per game last season, George Pickens has posted big gains this season, now averaging 89.0 per game.
- George Pickens’s 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 44.8.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
- George Pickens comes in as one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
