Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- J.K. Dobbins has been given 41.0% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
- J.K. Dobbins has picked up 60.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (83rd percentile).
- J.K. Dobbins’s rushing efficiency (5.57 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among RBs).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.27 yards-per-carry.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
