Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-129) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will be rolling out backup QB Kyle Allen in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.7 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Brandin Cooks has posted quite a few less air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
- Brandin Cooks has compiled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
