Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
- DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 27.2% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (153.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- DK Metcalf has been among the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a measly 7.49 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile among WRs
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
