Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- In this week’s game, D.K. Metcalf is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 91st percentile among wide receivers with 9.3 targets.
- D.K. Metcalf checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 60.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
- This year, the deficient 49ers pass defense has surrendered a massive 71.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 5th-largest rate in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- The 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
