Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bengals are an enormous 7-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 19.8 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has earned 82.4% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has run for substantially more yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 33.2% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Joe Mixon has been among the weakest RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.44 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense boasts the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
