Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-120) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 8.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews has been much more involved in his team’s pass attack this year (33.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.6%).
- Mark Andrews has accrued a colossal 95.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews’s ability to generate extra yardage has gotten better this season, totaling 4.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.70 figure last season.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (76.2%) versus tight ends this year (76.2%).
Cons
- The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
