Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to total 13.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- Travis Etienne has been given 51.6% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- Travis Etienne has picked up 65.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the 5th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
