Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Anthony RichardsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Anthony Richardson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-114) after it opened @ 196.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 10th-most yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.11 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.48 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Anthony Richardson to attempt 32.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
