NFL Splits Tool, Week 11: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Browns -1, O/U 33

Steelers

Year in and year out, Mike Tomlin continues to exceed expectations, on track to record his 16th consecutive season finishing .500 or above. The offense hasn’t been great, bottom eight in scoring, but has done just enough to remain competitive, playing mistake-free football. They have the lowest turnover rate per offensive drive (6.9%), leading the NFL in turnover margin (+10). The offense may be getting some much-needed reinforcement this week, possibly getting back Pat Freiermuth who returned to practice, opening up his 21-day window.

Freiermuth has surpassed double-digit receiving yards just once this season but has been a force in the red zone, scoring in 50% of his games. There’s no guarantee he’s active this week, but would face a difficult matchup, facing a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. It’s hard to ever trust a touchdown-or-bust tight end, but Freiermuth could see an uptick in target share depending on the limitations of Diontae Johnson, who was listed as a DNP due to a thumb injury earlier in the week before returning to practice Thursday.

The severity of the injury is unclear but is not too concering at the moment.

Browns

The Browns pulled off the upset of the weekend in Week 10, traveling to Baltimore and defeating the Ravens, closing the gap in the AFC North. Things got ugly fast for Cleveland, turning the ball for a pick-6 on their opening drive, trailing by 14 points in the first quarter. However, the team rallied behind Deshaun Watson who threw his first touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter and led the offense to a game-winning drive that ended in a walk-off field goal. When it looked like things were finally shaping up for Watson, news broke earlier this week that the former all-pro quarterback was done for the season, set to undergo shoulder surgery.

In a somewhat surprising turn of events, the team announced that fifth-round rookie, Dorian Thompson-Robinson will take over as the starter, as opposed to the 2020 XFL MVP, P.J. Walker. DTR was impressive in the preseason but struggled in his lone spot start in Week 4, completing 52.77% of his passes for 121 yards, three interceptions, and no touchdowns. David Njoku was the only player to surpass 20 receiving yards on the day, catching six of seven passes for 46 yards. It’s hard to take too much from a one-game sample size, but it isn’t surprising to see a first-year signal caller lean on his tight end who has been much better with Watson inactive or out for most of the game.

Amari Cooper saw only one fewer target than Njoku (6) with DTR under center, but he still led the team with a 35% air yard share. His overall target share has been slightly better alongside non-Watson quarterbacks, but his production has been much worse across the board.

A full week of preparation should go a long way for Cooper’s outlook — he should continue to command opportunities downfield, averaging third-most air yards per game this season (123.33). Despite playing with three different quarterbacks in nine games, Cooper is the only player in the NFL to see 100-plus yards through the air in every contest.

Game Prop

George Pickens Over 2.5 Receptions

(-135, Bet365)

George Pickens has taken a clear back seat since Diontae Johnson returned to the lineup, posting just a 16% target share over the last week. However, Pickens matched Johnson in targets in his most recent outing, surpassing his 2.5 reception prop for the seventh time this season. The matchup isn’t great, facing a Cleveland secondary-ranked No. 1 in DVOA against the pass, but there should be enough opportunity for Pickens in what projects to be a neutral to trailing gamescript. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos

Broncos: -2.5, O/U 42.5

Vikings

No Kirk Cousins, no Justin Jefferson, no problem for the Vikings, who have won each of their last five games, holding on to the final seed of the NFC Wild Card race. With playoff aspirations in mind, Minnesota saved their season at the trade deadline, acquiring Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs could not have asked for a better start with his new team, coming in relief of Jaren Hall with less than a week of preparation and beating the Falcons in Atlanta. He continued to impress in his first official last weekend, knocking off the Saints in his home debut. Dobbs had his best day as a passer in Week 11, posting a season-high in completion rate (67.7%) and passing yards (268), recording one touchdown through the air and another on the ground. T.J. Hockenson was the beneficiary of Dobbs’ lone passing touchdown. Hockenson questionable with a rib injury entering the game. He was limited to a 63% snap share, but had his game of the season, catching 11 of 15 passes surpassing the century mark for the first time in 2023 (134). He’s been the go-to option for Dobbs, recording a 40% target share and 45% air yard share over the last two weeks. Hockenson is already the TE1 in fantasy, averaging 16.3 PPR points per game, but his ceiling has been higher since Cousins went down.

First-round rookie Jordan Addison hasn’t had the same output as Hockenson but has emerged as the clear second option without Justin Jefferson, recording a 21% target share since and a 34% air-yard share in his last five games.

With Dobbs under center, Addison’s fantasy production has taken a hit, despite seeing a small increase in targets and receiving yards with the same number of receptions. Much of that can be attributed to touchdown variance, yet to find the end zone without Cousins throwing to him.

Although he has been viable as a WR3 or flex option, it may be harder to trust Addison once Jefferson returns, currently listed as questionable for Week 11.

Another injury worth monitoring will be Alexander Mattison who suffered a concussion last game, trending toward doubtful.

Based on historical data, Dr. David Chao gives Mattison a 22% to play, likely missing at least one game. Already without Cam Akers, Ty Chandler should see a near-every-down role, facing a Broncos defense ranked dead last in DVOA against the rush allowing the most rushing yards (136.2) and fantasy points (32.7 PPR) per game to opposing running backs.

Broncos

The new-look Broncos under Sean Payton have started to hit their stride over the last month, winning three games in a row, defeating the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs, and knocking off the Bills in Buffalo in their last two outings. They’ve found success in finally unleashing Javonte Williams who has recorded 95-plus scrimmage yards and a 50%-plus snap share in three consecutive games. In Weeks 1-6, Williams averaged less than 50 combined rushing and receiving yards (48.2), playing on just 38% of the team’s offensive snaps.

The increase in usage and production has been in sync with his initial recovery timeline, now over a year removed from ACL and PCL surgery. He faces a difficult matchup in Week 11, facing a Vikings defense ranked top-8 in DVOA, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. However, Williams is averaging almost 25 opportunities per game since Week 7 (24.7), nearing must-start territory.

Game Prop

Javonte Williams: Over 2.5 Receptions

(-160, Bet365 and BetMGM)

Javonte Williams’ increase in snap share has led to a lot more opportunities on the ground, while also providing a slight uptick in the receiving department. He’s posted a 37% route participation rate and 17% over his last two games, logging a season-high 31 receiving yards and scoring his first receiving touchdown in Week 10. In Weeks 1-7, Williams ran a route on just 27% of Russell Wilson’s dropbacks barely carving out a double-digit target share (10%). Williams has caught three passes in back-to-back games and is a good bet to do so once again this upcoming weekend. -160 is heavy juice to pay, but worth the squeeze given the steady production.

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Justin Fields is back in action after missing the last six games with a hand injury. DJ Moore strives to benefit the most with Fields under center, posting a 41% air yard share in Weeks 1-6, averaging 97 receiving yards per game. Can he clear his yardage prop this upcoming weekend? How will Fields look after being sidelined for over a month? Will Chicago cover the +9.5 spread, traveling to the Lions’ den, and taking on the top-ranked team in the NFC North? Find out for yourself using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!

In NFL Week 10, customers who used The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet to get the biggest injury-based mismatches over 10 points won 3-2 on Spread Bets (60% ATS!)

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