NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
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Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lions -2.5, O/U 45
Lions
After getting blown out by the Ravens in Week 7, the Lions got back on track before their bye, riding their first-round rookie running back to a 26-14 victory against the Raiders. It was a coming-out party for Jahmyr Gibbs, who posted career-high marks in carries (26) and rushing yards (156), giving him 125-plus yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in back-to-back games. Much of his production can be attributed to the absence of David Montgomery, who was a full participant in practice Wednesday, trending toward probable this weekend.
The return of Montgomery should help bolster Detroit’s run game but could be detrimental for Gibbs, who has been the clear second option when both backs are available. Gibbs has yet to surpass a 50% snap share with Montgomery active, averaging only 33 rushing yards per game.
Gibbs’ 22.7 receiving yards per game with Montgomery is encouraging, but nearly 10 yards fewer than his median as the starter (-9.66). It’s uncertain how the split will bear out going forward but both players could be viable for fantasy in Week 10, facing a Chargers defense that has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to the position (23.59).
Chargers
The Chargers cruised to a 27-6 victory against the Jets Monday night, but the offense has continued to struggle without Mike Williams. The already depleted wide receiver core took another hit over the weekend, placing Joshua Palmer on the injured reserve list due to a knee sprain.
Justin Herbert struggled without a full arsenal of weapons, posting season-lows in completion rate (53.3%) and passing yards (137), getting shut out of the end zone for a second consecutive game. Since Williams was shut down in Week 4, Herbert has yet to surpass 300 yards through the air, averaging over 95 fewer passing yards per game (-95.6).
Keenan Allen has seen a team-high 26% target share and 34% air yard share during that stretch, but his numbers have also declined without Williams.
Although Quentiin Johnston has benefited in the absence of Williams, his production has been disappointing, averaging less than two receptions (1.8) and a little over 20 receiving yards (20.4) in his last five games.
It may be too early to completely write off the first-round rookie, but there isn’t much to get excited about. Johnston is currently dead last in his draft class in yards per route run (0.76), ranked 94th out of 101 qualified players at the position.
Game Prop
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen 4+ reception and 50+ receiving yards, Sam LaPorta 25+ receiving yards
(-140, Bet365)
There aren’t many players as consistent as Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has caught at least five passes and surpassed 55 receiving yards in every game this season. Keenan Allen has been almost as reliable, clearing 4 receptions and 50 receiving yards in seven out of eight games (87.5%). Unlike normal rookie tight ends, Sam LaPorta has been an integral part of the offense since day one, trailing only St. Brown in target share (22%). He’s averaging the fifth most receiving yards per game at the position (54.3) with over 35 receiving yards in every game.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers -1, O/U 29.5
Titans
Second-round rookie Will Levis put on a show in his season debut in Week 8, throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 28-23 victory against the Falcons. Despite getting shut out of the end zone in his second career game, Levis won over the trust of the coaching staff in Week 8, recording the most dropbacks by a Tennessee quarterback over the last two seasons (39). DeAndre Hopkins has benefited the most from the uptick in passing volume, averaging over 20 fantasy points in two games without Ryan Tannehill.
He was held to just four receptions for 60 yards in his last outing but saw 11 targets, clearing double digits for just the third time this season. There’s no denying Hopkins’s role as the alpha of the offense, but he could see even more volume with Treylon Burks listed as questionable due to a concussion.
With Levis under center in Weeks 8-9, Nuk has seen a 25% target share, accounting for 39% of the team’s air yards in back-to-back games.
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers enter Week 10 on a four-game losing streak, blowing a four-point lead with less than 50 seconds left in regulation in their last outing. The defense had no answer for C.J. Stroud, who set a single-game rookie record in passing yards (470), finding the end zone five times. Even at full strength, Tampa Bay has glaring holes in their secondary but should have better success against Will Levis making his second career start.
Game Prop
Kyle Philips 3+ receptions
(+165, Bet365)
In Week 9, Kyle Philips set season-high marks across the board, catching four passes on five targets for 68 receiving yards. He ran a route on just 47% of Will Levis’ dropbacks but earned a 24% target per route run rate. With Levis under center, Philips has caught three or more passes in back-to-back games. If Treylon Burks is out, Philips should see an uptick in snaps and possibly play a full-time role.
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Kyler Murray makes his highly anticipated return in Week 10 after nearly a one-year hiatus. I broke down the “Kyler-Less Cardinals” earlier this offseason using the Splits Tool. How will Murray look in his first game on the field? Does James Conner maintain his bell-cow role if he is active this weekend? Can Arizona cover the +2 spread, playing at home against a Falcons team that has lost five of their last seven games? Find out for yourself using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!
