NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/9)

It has been a long time since we’ve had an NBA DFS slate of this size, but Wednesday presents an insane 12-game slate around the league. These slates can often be overwhelming so be sure to stay on your toes throughout the day.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 9 | NBA DFS First Look

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets

BOS -7, total: 227.5
Pace: BOS (22nd), CHA (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Gordon Hayward remains out for Charlotte.

Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons

CHI -5.5, total: 227.5
Pace: CHI (12th), DET (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nikola Vucevic (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Chicago.
• For Detroit, Isaiah Stewart has been ruled out for the next week or so. 

Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat

MIA -7.5, total: 219.5
Pace: PHX (9th), MIA (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Booker and Chris Paul will remain sidelined for Phoenix. Cameron Johnson is questionable to play.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets

LAL -4.5, total: 233.5
Pace: LAL (4th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James missed the last game and is listed as questionable again. 
• For Houston, Christian Wood is listed as questionable with an illness. Meanwhile, Dennis Schroder (ankle) and Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) are also listed as questionable. Garrison Mathews is also dealing with an ankle sprain.

Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -5.5, total: 238.5
Pace: ATL (19th), MIL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kevin Huerter (shoulder) is listed as probable for Atlanta.
• Grayson Allen is listed as questionable for Milwaukee.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -14.5, total: 232
Pace: OKC (17th), MIN (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey, Kenrich Williams and Ty Jerome will all remain out for the Thunder. 
• For Minnesota, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley and Jarred Vanderbilt are all listed as questionable.

Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans

NOP -8.5, total: 222.5
Pace: ORL (9th), NOP (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Suggs has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. We’ll see if he returns to action Wednesday.
• Brandon Ingram missed Tuesday’s game with a hamstring injury. He is questionable for Wednesday.

New York Knicks @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -8, total: 215
Pace: NYK (26th), DAL (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Brunson (foot) is listed as questionable for Dallas.
• For New York, Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel are both listed as questionable, while Obi Toppin has been ruled out again.

Toronto Raptors @ San Antonio Spurs

TOR -1.5, total: 229.5
Pace: TOR (24th), SAS (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet is listed as questionable but could return for this game. OG Anunoby and Malachi Flynn will remain out.
• For San Antonio, both Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker are listed as probable.

Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings

DEN -4.5, total: 239.5
Pace: DEN (19th), SAC (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Will Barton (ankle) is listed as questionable for Denver. Bones Hyland is probable.
• Richaun Holmes will be out due to personal reasons.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz

UTA -17, total: 222
Pace: POR (14th), UTA (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Anfernee Simons is listed as questionable for Portland.

Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -4, total: 217.5
Pace: WAS (22nd), LAC (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Raul Neto left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury but participated in practice Tuesday. 

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

LeBron James vs. Houston Rockets

We obviously need to make sure LeBron is active after he sat out Monday’s game. However, if he is good to go, he easily makes for one of the top plays of the slate. James has been playing a lot more center in the absence of Anthony Davis, which has given him even more rebounding upside. With Davis off the floor this season, James’ rebounding rate climbs to 23%, while also sporting a 16% and 33.2% usage rate in the split. He is also averaging over 1.5 fantasy points per minute and in games Davis doesn’t play in this season, LeBron is averaging nearly nine rebounds and about 56 fantasy points per game. This matchup with the Rockets is fantastic, as no team in basketball is coughing up more transition points per game this season (24.6). James, meanwhile, is averaging 7.2 points per game in transition, second in all of basketball to this point of the season. As long as he is active, LeBron should absolutely smash here.

Scottie Barnes vs. San Antonio Spurs

With both Fred VanVleet and Malachi Flynn out last game, Barnes got the start at point guard and saw plenty of usage. In fact, he recorded a whopping 97 touches in that game. For reference, Nikola Jokic leads the league in touches per game over the full season at 99.3 per game. Barnes rebounding and assist rates climb with VanVleet off the floor this season and if he is ruled out again, the rookie will likely start at point guard with Flynn already ruled out. That is very enticing, especially against a San Antonio team that is allowing the third-most real points (24.14), third-most rebounds (7.10) and third-most blocks (0.64) per game to opposing point guards. 

Robert Williams vs. Charlotte Hornets

Williams is logging massive minutes for the Celtics right now, averaging just over 35 per game over his last four outings. During that same span, Williams is averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game and should be able to find continued success against a Charlotte defense that is allowing the third-most points (25.7) and second-most rebounds per game (17.5) to opposing centers. The Hornets are also allowing a league-leading 7.6 points per game off putbacks, while Williams is averaging 2.7 putback points per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. With this being a massive pace-up game for Charlotte, there will be more shot attempts, which will lead to more rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities for Williams.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Landry Shamet vs. MIA — With Devin Booker and Chris Paul out, Shamet has filled a larger role lately, especially with Cameron Johnson also sidelined. Shamet has started each of the last two games for the Suns, logging 34 and 39 minutes. The price has come up, so you feel better about him if Johnson is out again. Still, the minutes should be there and while the Heat are a good defense, 37.6% of the points surrendered by this defense have come from beyond the arc, the second-highest mark in basketball.