NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/15)

There are only four NBA games Tuesday, but there’s still a lot to discuss for DFS. The Memphis Grizzlies are clearly going to be the focal point of the slate, but we also need to watch the Indiana Pacers and New Orleans Pelicans. 

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 15 | NBA DFS First Look

Memphis Grizzlies @ Indiana Pacers

MEM -7.5, total: 233.5
Pace: MEM (2nd), IND (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant (back) is listed as doubtful for Memphis. 
• For the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon (concussion), Chris Duarte (toe), Lance Stephenson (ankle) and Goga Bitadze (foot) are all listed as questionable.

Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic

BKN -9.5, total: 232
Pace: BKN (8th), ORL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Suggs has been ruled out for Orlando with an ankle injury. Gary Harris is listed as questionable.
• For Brooklyn, Seth Curry is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat

MIA -12.5, total: 216.5
Pace: DET (12th), MIA (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Hamidou Diallo will remain sidelined for Detroit.

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

PHX -6, total: 226.5
Pace: PHX (5th), NOP (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Ingram will remain out for the Pelicans, though CJ McCollum is listed as questionable.
• Cameron Johnson has once again been ruled out for Phoenix.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Tyus Jones vs. Indiana Pacers

Dillon Brooks is back for Memphis, but the likely absence of Ja Morant still makes Jones an absolute smash play. Jones will likely start at point guard for the Grizzlies — in 14 games as a starter this season, he is averaging 12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists and over a steal per game in 30.6 minutes. With Morant off the floor this season, Brooks is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute (0.97), while sporting a very healthy 21% assist rate in the split. Brooks will dominate the usage for this team, but Jones will still handle the ball more than enough, assuming Morant (who is doubtful) is ruled out.

Dillon Brooks vs. Indiana Pacers

Given the price tags, it is tough to not view Jones and Brooks as the two best plays of the entire slate. Brooks is coming off a game in which he finally returned to the lineup, played 26 minutes and now Morant is likely out. Yet, he is under $5,000 on DraftKings. Insane. Brooks attempted 14 shots in 26 minutes and even if he stays in that 25-27-minute range for this game, he could still easily take 20 shots, especially with Morant out. With Morant off the court over the course of the season, Brooks is sporting a massive 29.7% usage rate. He faces an Indiana team that is coughing up the third-most points per possession (1.01) and third-most points per game (5.8) off handoffs, which bodes well for Brooks, who is averaging 2.1 points per game off the play type, good for the third most in basketball.

Andre Drummond vs. Orlando Magic

Drummond has played well since joining Brooklyn and is coming off a very strong 18-point, 10-rebound double-double. With LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined, Drummond continues to start at center and play around 25-28 minutes per game, which is enough for a player as efficient as Drummond, especially against an Orlando team that ranks 29th against rim protectors and rebounders this season. The Magic are also coughing up the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the year (16.6), making this a very strong spot for Drummond Tuesday.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Outside of the obvious value on the Grizzlies, you could look at Orlando for some potential value. Jalen Suggs will miss this game, while Gary Harris is questionable. RJ Hampton likely starts in this game, while Markelle Fultz has been pretty productive since making his season debut, averaging 1.36 fantasy points per minute to go along with a 31% assist rate and 25.5% usage rate over the last two weeks.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Trae Young (76.0)
Terance Mann (45.0)
Isaac Okoro (37.75)
Matisse Thybulle (35.25)
Karl-Anthony Towns (89.75)
Mike Conley (48.5)
Keldon Johnson (52.5)
Patrick Beverley (42.0)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Trae Young (71.2)
Mike Conley (46.9)
Terance Mann (45.0)
Jrue Holiday (56.3)
Matisse Thybulle (41.5)
Talen Horton-Tucker (41.5)
Keldon Johnson (49.6)
Trendon Watford (46.8)
Karl-Anthony Towns (81.9)