NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/21)

We end the week with an 11-game DFS slate around the NBA. There is a ton to break down on Friday’s massive slate, so let’s not waste any time.

As always, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer over the course of the day. 

NBA Vegas Data for January 21 | NBA DFS First Look

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -9.5, total: 223
Pace: OKC (17th), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• P.J. Washington (hip) is listed as questionable for the Hornets.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic

LAL -5, total: 220
Pace: LAL (10th), ORL (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Wendell Carter has missed the last seven games with a hamstring injury but is listed as probable for Friday. Meanwhile, RJ Hampton will miss the next 2-4 weeks.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -8, total: 213
Pace: LAC (15th), PHI (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Marcus Morris (personal) and Nicolas Batum (health and safety protocols) are listed as questionable for the Clippers. 
• For the 76ers, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle and Danny Green remain out, while Seth Curry (ankle) is listed as questionable.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Boston Celtics

BOS -7.5, total: 212.5
Pace: POR (18th), BOS (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Norman Powell and Larry Nance will remain sidelined for Portland, while Nassir Little (knee) is listed as questionable.
• For Boston, Marcus Smart (conditioning) is listed as questionable.

Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -1.5, total: 217.5
Pace: MIA (28th), ATL (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Tyler Herro (health and safety protocols) and Kyle Lowry (personal) have been ruled out for the Heat.
• Atlanta, meanwhile, will remain without Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), while Clint Capela is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Danilo Gallinari is also questionable with Achilles soreness.

Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards

WAS -1, total: 218
Pace: TOR (24th), WAS (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Gary Trent has missed the last six games with an ankle injury and is once again listed as questionable for the Raptors.

Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -10.5, total: 226
Pace: CHI (15th), MIL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball will remain sidelined for the Bulls.

Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs

BKN -2.5, total: 232.5
Pace: BKN (7th), SAS (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kevin Durant will miss the next 4-6 weeks, while Nicolas Claxton is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -4, total: 222.5
Pace: MEM (5th), DEN (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones will all be out for the Grizzlies.

Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz

UTA -14, total: 219
Pace: DET (11th), UTA (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Donovan Mitchell (concussion) will remain sidelined for the Jazz.
• For the Pistons, Killian Hayes (hip) is questionable, while Frank Jackson remains out.

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -11, total: 229
Pace: HOU (1st), GSW (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Draymond Green (calf) will remain out for Golden State. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson will rest on the second end of a back-to-back.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Ja Morant recorded 103 touches during Memphis’ last game

The Grizzlies are (once again) shorthanded, missing Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones. With all four players inactive last game, Morant was even more of the focal point of the Grizzlies offense, as he touched the ball 103 times. For reference, Nikola Jokic leads the NBA in touches per game over the course of the season with 99.5. Morant also possessed the ball for 9.6 minutes in the game, while averaging 5.60 seconds per touch and sporting a 29.4% usage rate. This is a great matchup for Morant, facing a Denver team that is allowing a 66.8% defended field goal percentage from within six feet of the basket, tied for the worst rate in basketball. Morant, meanwhile, ranks third in the NBA in drives per game (20.0) over the course of the season. 

Mike Conley recorded 91 touches during Utah’s last game

Utah was without Donovan Mitchell during their last game, which led to more opportunities for Conley. He touched the ball 91 times, way up from his season average of 62.9 per game. With Mitchell off the floor over the course of the season, Conley is sporting a strong 18% assist rate and 20% usage rate, while averaging a fantasy point per minute in the split. With Mitchell once again ruled out, Conley remains one of the best mid-range plays of the slate.

Jaylen Brown is averaging 7.4 spot-up points per game on the season

No player in basketball is averaging more points per game off spot-ups, which isn’t new for Brown, who finished third in that department a season ago. He has once again been efficient, shooting 44% and averaging 1.11 points per possession off the play type and this is a good spot for him. Portland is coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.07) and second-highest field goal percentage (41.4%) to opposing spot-up shooters on the season, while also allowing the seventh-most points per game off the play type (29.4). Brown’s price tag has come down a bit lately, but the volume has not, as he has attempted at least 17 field goals in eight of his last 10 games. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Joe Ingles vs. DET — With Mitchell out last game, Ingles entered the Utah starting lineup and was solid, scoring 10 points to go along with five rebounds and six assists in 31 minutes. Mitchell will remain out on Friday and over the last two seasons with Mitchell off the court, Ingles’ assist rate climbs to a solid 17%.

John Konchar vs. DEN — Memphis will remain shorthanded Friday, particularly on the wing. Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones will all be out again, which should lead to 30-plus minutes for Konchar, who drew his third start of the season during the Grizzlies’ last contest.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Chris Paul (51.25)
Devin Booker (42.75)
Mikal Bridges (39.0)
Isaiah Jackson (31.25)
Mitchell Robinson (38.75)
Stephen Curry (61.25)
Chris Duarte (47.25)
Kevon Looney (39.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Stephen Curry (58.0)
Chris Paul (51.5)
Torrey Craig (32.9)
Luka Doncic (44.6)
Chris Duarte (48.9)
Mikal Bridges (42.6)
Isaiah Jackson (33.9)
Kevon Looney (36.5)
Jonas Valanciunas (39.0)

With the entire Pacers starting lineup out Thursday, Chris Duarte led the team to a surprise victory over the Warriors. Duarte scored 27 points to go along with seven rebounds, three assists and three steals. Meanwhile, Isaiah Jackson also saw a bump with both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner out, going for 15 points and seven boards, while sporting a team-high 31.2% usage rate.