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Bettings

As the NFL season progresses, we’ll go through and use our FTN Splits Tool to look for team- and player-level trends to help us through our fantasy season. As we head into the week, we can look at our splits tool to identify three things to watch for this weekend.

Thursday Night Football

The 49ers and Titans face off in a game with huge playoff implications. Whoever wins this game essentially shoots up to above a 90% chance of making the playoffs. The losing team will still be in control of its destiny but will have much less room for error.

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The Titans offense hasn’t quite clicked into place in Derrick Henry’s absence. They’re averaging the same exact number of rush attempts and only 12 fewer rushing yards per game, but scoring is way down. The Tennessee passing attack has struggled during this stretch. That’s a “which came first: the chicken or the egg” argument for another day. It could have something to do with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones being unable to stay healthy, but I digress.

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Depending on who you ask, Jimmy Garoppolo is playing pretty well through this point in the 2021 season, well enough to hold off Trey Lance and to get San Francisco into the meat of the playoff race. From a production perspective, he’s been about the same this year as he has in other seasons but he’s limiting mistakes and playing within the structure of the offense.

Ryan Tannehill had a stretch where he was about as efficient as any quarterback in the league, but his 2021 campaign has seen him cool off considerably.

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This season, he’s averaging a half-dozen extra pass attempts but is scoring 2.26 fewer fantasy points per game. It seems like an underwhelming duel between Jimmy G and Tannehill but it’s an important one as the playoff picture continues to develop.

Jonathan Taylor is Still Really Good

It’s nearly impossible to find a flaw in Jonathan Taylor’s game at the moment.

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He’s improved in every statistical category this year and boasts one of the highest win rates in best ball this year. The Colts play the Cardinals in another important matchup with playoff implications.

Bills/Patriots Rematch

I know I sound like a broken record, but this matchup has playoff implications and is a rematch of one of the weirdest games we’ve seen all year.

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Bill Belichick seemingly has Josh Allen’s number so far in his career. He averages nearly 6 fewer fantasy points in games against New England compared to every other team.

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Even if you strip out the wind bowl from a couple of weeks ago, we see a similar split.

The opposing quarterback, Mac Jones, was largely hidden and treated as a game manager to start the season. He was unleashed a bit in his last start, though. Jones had his second-most pass attempts of his career in Week 15 with 44 throws. He didn’t tally a QB1 finish until Week 7 but has finished in the top 12 in four of his last eight games (including the wind game, which should be thrown out anyway).